Title: Crowd Wisdom and Prediction Markets

Speaker: Prof Min DAI, National University of Singapore

Date: 2019/09/25, Tuesday, 9:30-11:00

Venue: 览秀楼205

Abstract:

An important area of Fintech is about crowd wisdom, where the collective opinion of a group of individuals is used to make predictions. We design a prediction market and propose an estimator that is consistent under weaker conditions, compared with the estimator proposed by Prelec et al. (2017) who introduce a survey design to improve the prediction performance from a poll. Numerical experiments are given to demonstrate our estimator. This work is jointly with Yanwei Jia and Steven Kou.

 报告人简介:

Dai Min教授现任新加坡国立大学数量金融中心主任、风险管理研究所副所长。在金融衍生产品定价与对冲、动态投资策略、缺乏流动性的投资组合设计等领域做了很多深入的工作。文章发表在Journal of Economic Theory，Management Science，Mathematical Finance，Review of Financial Studies等国际一流期刊。目前担任SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics，Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control等期刊编委。